← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 62% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.78 | value: +4% |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Charlison Benschop · Graafschap |
| 49' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Graafschap |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | ⚽ | Javier Vet · Graafschap |
| 70' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Graafschap |
| 77' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 804.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1557.38 | 1408.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.84 | 9.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 33.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 25.14 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |