← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 44% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| FC Emmen win | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Andrej Lukić · Fortuna Sittard |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lisandro Semedo · Fortuna Sittard |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Fortuna Sittard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lisandro Semedo · Fortuna Sittard |
| 78' | 🟥 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1194.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1387.83 | 1458.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.67 | -22.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.24 | 25.69 |
| state index | -1.14 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |