β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +5% |
| FC Emmen win | 34% | 32% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | β½ | Adrian Dalmau Β· Heracles |
| 31' | π¨ | Alexander Merkel Β· Heracles |
| 43' | π¨ | Tim Breukers Β· Heracles |
| 45' | π¨ | Tim Breukers Β· Heracles |
| 45' | π₯ | Tim Breukers Β· Heracles |
| 51' | π¨ | Anco Jansen Β· FC Emmen |
| 55' | π¨ | Andrej LukiΔ Β· FC Emmen |
| 85' | β½ | Sven Braken Β· FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | β |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | β |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 1012.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1459.20 | 1506.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.42 | 10.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 25.68 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |