← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 18% | 21% | 5.24 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · Graafschap |
| 22' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 33' | ⚽ | Bart Straalman · Graafschap |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fernando Lewis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 75' | 🟨 | Erik Bakker · Graafschap |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marios Vrousai · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daryl van Mieghem · Graafschap |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 220.00 | 797.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1488.30 | 1414.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.99 | 32.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.08 | 25.02 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |