← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 46% | 44% | 2.12 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Burnet · SBV Excelsior |
| 57' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1712.00 | 950.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1452.88 | 1451.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.94 | 10.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 26.77 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |