← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.97 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 17% | 22% | 5.67 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 33' | 🟥 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 46' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Iliass Bel Hassani · FC Groningen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 88' | 🟥 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 275.00 | 1706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1557.03 | 1458.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.34 | -21.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.34 | 27.65 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |