← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 85% | 83% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.43 | value: +16% |
| FC Emmen win | 5% | 4% | 18.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Nico Neidhart · FC Emmen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 76' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1402.00 | 1005.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1707.87 | 1464.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.44 | -13.06 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 43.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |