← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 43% | 46% | 2.23 | value: +3% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days |
| 789.00 |
| 1854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1407.38 | 1491.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.86 | 4.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |