← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Dauda Mohammed · Vitesse |
| 19' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dauda Mohammed · Vitesse |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alexander Bannink · FC Emmen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nico Neidhart · FC Emmen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 998.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1480.96 | 1567.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.10 | -15.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |