← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 59% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 16% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Thomas Lam · Graafschap |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Charlison Benschop · Graafschap |
| 72' | 🟨 | Bart Straalman · Graafschap |
| 77' | 🟥 | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 80' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 84.00 | 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1489.28 | 1388.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.15 | 13.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |