← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 39% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 35% | 27% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.74 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Joey Konings · Heracles |
| 39' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nils Röseler · VVV Venlo |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days |
| 1697.00 |
| 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1456.02 | 1508.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.66 | -11.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |