← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 56% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 18% | 12% | 5.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 11' | 🟨 | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 28' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 48' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · Willem II Tilburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 59' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 61' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 83' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 321.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1548.42 | 1478.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.70 | 23.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |