← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 78% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.70 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 8% | 8% | 12.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Nils Röseler · AZ |
| 48' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · AZ |
| 51' | 🟨 | Peter van Ooijen · VVV Venlo |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1629.00 | 1691.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.56 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1674.96 | 1462.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.14 | 27.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.74 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |