← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 85% | 83% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 9.01 | value: +14% |
| Graafschap win | 5% | 5% | 20.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 38' | 🟨 | Charlison Benschop · Graafschap |
| 52' | ⚽ | Calvin Verdonk · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jeremiah St. Juste · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 13 |
| 16 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1380.00 | 769.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1694.39 | 1392.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.86 | 30.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |