← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 75% | 81% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.27 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 9% | 6% | 10.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 13' | 🟨 | Gersom Klok · FC Emmen |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Michael De Leeuw · AZ |
| 47' | ⚽ | Calvin Stengs · AZ |
| 86' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1615.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.51 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1658.38 | 1486.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.87 | 4.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |