← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 81% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 14% | 12.03 | value: +71% |
| VVV Venlo win | 3% | 4% | 28.91 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 397.00 | 1677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1840.54 | 1455.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.63 | 16.41 |
| eye test v1 | 2.17 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 47.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.75 | — |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |