← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.73 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Graafschap |
| 71' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Graafschap |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mounir El Hamdaoui · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 908.00 | 755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1416.77 | 1387.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.05 | 15.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.00 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.23 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |