← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 43% | 57% | 2.23 | value: +28% |
| Graafschap win | 31% | 21% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Javier Vet · Graafschap |
| 27' | ⚽ | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 30' | ⚽ | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alessandro Ciranni · Fortuna Sittard |
| 43' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ahmed El Messaoudi · Fortuna Sittard |
| 66' | ⚽ | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 67' | 🟨 | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 73' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 83' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 749.00 | 1140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1364.37 | 1507.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.03 | 12.06 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -17.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |