← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 39' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 43' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟥 | Robert Zwinkels · ADO Den Haag |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1813.00 | 1663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -8.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1506.41 | 1447.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.04 | -8.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |