← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 62% | 80% | 1.56 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 22% | 12% | 4.34 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 16% | 9% | 5.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Frank Olijve · Graafschap |
| 43' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · Graafschap |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ | Furdjel Narsingh · Graafschap |
| 65' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Javier Vet · Graafschap |
| 89' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rasmus Thelander · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 721.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 4.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1360.28 | 1571.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.57 | 11.13 |
| eye test v1 | -1.81 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -18.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | -1.62 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |