← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 38% | 47% | 2.52 | value: +19% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 34% | 27% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Aras Özbiliz · Willem II Tilburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 935.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1485.49 | 1455.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | -20.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |