← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 93% | 89% | 1.04 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 6% | 20.60 | value: +26% |
| Graafschap win | 2% | 5% | 54.14 | value: +179% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 25' | ⚽ | Noussair Mazraoui · AFC Ajax |
| 32' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 62' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · Graafschap |
| 69' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 35 | Shots | 3 |
| 17 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 3 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 349.00 | 714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.62 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.23 |
| elo | 1864.28 | 1362.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.73 | -21.63 |
| eye test v1 | 2.21 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | -14.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.20 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.01 | — |
| state index | 2.09 | -1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |