← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 68% | 69% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.58 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 11% | 13% | 8.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jake Clarke-Salter · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 76' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 82' | 🟨 | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 258.00 | 1628.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1566.02 | 1439.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.08 | -2.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |