← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 41% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.44 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jerold Promes · VVV Venlo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1622.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1439.39 | 1509.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.09 | 34.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |