← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.59 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 13% | 19% | 7.59 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ | Jan-Arie van der Heijden · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tim Siekman · FC Emmen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 71' | ⚽ | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 77' | ⚽ | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nick Bakker · FC Emmen |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 32 |
| 6 | On target | 12 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 921.00 | 1318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1481.64 | 1729.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.05 | 23.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |