← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.83 | value: +13% |
| Graafschap win | 16% | 15% | 5.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · Graafschap |
| 88' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1771.00 | 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| elo | 1487.16 | 1357.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.43 | -6.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -13.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |