← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Thu, Dec 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 80% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.27 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 7% | 8% | 14.06 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 33' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 58' | ⚽ | Tino-Sven Sušić · VVV Venlo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1315.00 | 1619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1725.08 | 1443.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.45 | 20.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |