← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 67% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.54 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 11% | 13% | 8.38 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 51' | ⚽ | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gersom Klok · FC Emmen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Marinus · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 244.00 | 913.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1583.88 | 1477.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.11 | -6.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |