← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 48% | 59% | 2.03 | value: +20% |
| Graafschap win | 27% | 21% | 3.58 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 14' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · PEC Zwolle |
| 17' | 🟨 | Erik Bakker · Graafschap |
| 18' | 🟥 | Sven Nieuwpoort · Graafschap |
| 29' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · PEC Zwolle |
| 33' | 🟨 | Frank Olijve · Graafschap |
| 33' | 🟨 | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 33' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 75' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hidde Jurjus · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 26 |
| 0 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 699.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1371.99 | 1434.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | -40.63 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |