← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 24% | 21% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jerold Promes · VVV Venlo |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 15' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 30' | 🟨 | Nils Röseler · VVV Venlo |
| 30' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lars Unnerstall · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Peter van Ooijen · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1608.00 | 1546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1452.22 | 1645.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.97 | -24.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |