← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 76% | 77% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.34 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 9% | 9% | 11.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 17' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 23' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · Graafschap |
| 24' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nick Venema · FC Utrecht |
| 85' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Graafschap |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nick Venema · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 85.00 | 693.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1605.92 | 1378.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.72 | -10.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.74 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |