← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 46% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 27% | 23% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 907.00 | 846.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1490.56 | 1428.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.55 | -36.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |