← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 40% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +13% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 31% | 25% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 41' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jorrit Smeets · Fortuna Sittard |
| 86' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1593.00 | 1069.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1442.13 | 1505.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.73 | 10.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 15.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.40 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |