← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 25% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 58' | ⚽ | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
| 70' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jafar Arias · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 892.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1480.56 | 1420.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.47 | 10.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |