← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 59% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 17% | 13% | 5.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stef Gronsveld · FC Emmen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 886.00 | 886.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1517.74 | 1477.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.60 | -27.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 52.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |