← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 80% | 72% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 21% | 7.65 | value: +58% |
| Graafschap win | 8% | 7% | 11.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 76' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 1524.00 | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 2.60 |
| -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1635.58 | 1383.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.84 | -2.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |