← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 38% | 41% | 2.57 | value: +4% |
| Graafschap win | 37% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Daryl van Mieghem · Graafschap |
| 38' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frank Olijve · Graafschap |
| 50' | ⚽ | Furdjel Narsingh · Graafschap |
| 55' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 66' | 🟥 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 664.00 | 817.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1363.92 | 1469.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.23 | 14.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.33 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.89 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |