← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 41% | 2.51 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 32% | 25% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Indy Groothuizen · ADO Den Haag |
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 6' | 🟨 | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | 🟨 | Shaquille Pinas · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1573.00 | 1723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1422.82 | 1517.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.24 | 21.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.54 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |