← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.54 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 20% | 5.58 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 39' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 46' | 🟨 | Robert Klaasen · Graafschap |
| 50' | ⚽ | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · Graafschap |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 88' | ⚽ | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1049.00 | 658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1490.68 | 1371.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.36 | -22.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 54.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.71 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |