← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 40% | 43% | 2.40 | value: +4% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 32% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Alexander Bannink · FC Emmen |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Wessel Dammers · FC Emmen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicklas Pedersen · FC Emmen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jafar Arias · FC Emmen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lisandro Semedo · Fortuna Sittard |
| 72' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Alexander Bannink · FC Emmen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gersom Klok · FC Emmen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 80' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 858.00 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| 1035.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1485.01 | 1489.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.33 | -8.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.57 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |