← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 43% | 49% | 2.28 | value: +12% |
| Graafschap win | 31% | 25% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 51' | 🟥 | Erik Bakker · Graafschap |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 8 | Shots | 24 |
| 1 | On target | 14 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 643.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1389.39 | 1491.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.92 | -30.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.43 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.43 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |