← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 62% | 71% | 1.55 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.70 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 17% | 13% | 5.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 7' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 40' | 🟨 | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 47' | 🟨 | Yoell Van Nieff · Heracles |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tim Siekman · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 91.00 | 851.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1538.68 | 1492.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.96 | -19.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.79 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.84 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |