← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 48% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 27% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 3.99 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 18' | 🟥 | Atakan Akkaynak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 21' | ⚽ | Stefan Nijland · Graafschap |
| 27' | 🟨 | Diego Palacios · Willem II Tilburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fernando Lewis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dries Saddiki · Willem II Tilburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Myenty Abena · Graafschap |
| 64' | 🟨 | Diego Palacios · Willem II Tilburg |
| 64' | 🟥 | Diego Palacios · Willem II Tilburg |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Fernando Lewis · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 637.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 4.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1377.77 | 1494.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.70 | 27.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.83 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.20 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |