← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 31% | 28% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tino-Sven Sušić · VVV Venlo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 59' | 🟨 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 85' | 🟥 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 789.00 | 1551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1456.99 | 1432.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.82 | 31.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -2.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |