← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 41% | 49% | 2.34 | value: +14% |
| FC Emmen win | 32% | 26% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · PEC Zwolle |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 29' | 🟨 | Caner Cavlan · FC Emmen |
| 30' | ⚽ | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Reuven Niemeijer · FC Emmen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 844.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1505.43 | 1442.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.43 | -18.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.60 |