← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 45% | 53% | 2.12 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
| 37' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Tino-Sven Sušić · VVV Venlo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Gervane Kastaneer · NAC Breda |
| 88' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 88' | 🟥 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1544.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1417.40 | 1424.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.23 | -25.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.06 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.97 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |