← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Erwin Blank, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 62% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.53 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 17% | 15% | 5.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Javier Vet · Heracles |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 52' | 🟨 | Robert Klaasen · Graafschap |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 73' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 81' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 88' | 🟥 | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 82.00 | 628.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1529.79 | 1386.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.05 | -4.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.72 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |