← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 66% | 72% | 1.46 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.57 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 13% | 11% | 7.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟥 | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 51' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Simon Makienok · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Reuven Niemeijer · FC Emmen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gersom Klok · FC Emmen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | — |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 15.00 | 837.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | — |
| elo | 1604.22 | 1490.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.12 | — |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 64.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 46.50 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.50 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | — |