← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.53 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Patrick Joosten · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1523.00 | 822.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1404.58 | 1510.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.67 | -27.53 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |