← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 37% | 33% | 2.61 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 37% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.67 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Michael Breij · FC Groningen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stefan Nijland · Graafschap |
| 44' | ⚽ | Michael Breij · FC Groningen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Myenty Abena · Graafschap |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 601.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.57 |
| elo | 1402.32 | 1514.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.10 | -3.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.50 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.50 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |